Uncertainty continues to shape the New Zealand property market, with ongoing global trade tensions keeping both buyers and sellers alert. As CoreLogic Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson recently noted, “These are uncertain times for New Zealand, with no one quite sure what impact the global trade war will have on interest rates and property prices.”
Despite the challenges, Davidson believes there is still upside in the market: “All in all, there are both supports and restraints for the housing market in 2025, suggesting that a modest rise in values of perhaps 5% remains on the cards this year.”
In April, the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 3.75% to 3.50%, a widely expected move in response to stable inflation and a subdued economy. However, the MPC’s accompanying statement highlighted global tariffs and trade uncertainty as ongoing risks, making future movements harder to predict.
Then came Budget 2025.
According to the NZ Herald / OneRoof (22 May 2025), the Budget delivered “no surprises for the housing market.” In fact, housing barely featured in Finance Minister Nicola Willis’s speech. However, the Budget’s Economic and Fiscal Update forecasted a rebound in property prices, tipping 5.6% growth by 2026.
Ray White New Zealand also weighed in:
“Budget 2025 provides little immediate relief for the property market but sets the stage for future stability through infrastructure investments.”
From a local perspective, Daniel Horrobin, Director of City Realty Group, commented:
“There were no major surprises in the Budget for us, but we’re watching closely and hopeful that another 25 basis point cut will be announced in the next OCR review on May 28.”
Horrobin also noted a lift in activity across the business:
“May has been a strong listing month for us, which is encouraging as we move into the winter period. We’re particularly looking forward to a major auction event on 29 May, with over 20 properties set to go under the hammer in our central city auction room.”
The vendor pool reflects a broad demographic mix, he adds:
“We’re working with sellers across New Zealand, the UK, Australia, and the Persian Gulf. It brings a diverse, international flavour — although the time zones can be a bit of a juggling act.”
Closer to home, there’s renewed optimism for Auckland’s city centre. As reported by Stuff, Deputy Mayor Viv Beck recently stated:
“Our top priority is to attract more people here to enjoy all the great things that are on, which will only get better as a decade of major construction comes to an end.”
A welcome outlook for those of us who live, work and invest in the heart of the city.
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OCR Drop Sparks Market Optimism The Reserve Bank’s much-anticipated Official Cash Rate (OCR) cut on February 19 did not disappoint, says Daniel Horrobin, Director of City Realty Group. As reported by Stuff on February 20, the OCR was lowered by 50 basis points to 3.75%, with banks quick to respond … Read more