Positive Momentum, But Still a Few Speed Bumps Ahead

“We’re definitely seeing signs of momentum,” says Daniel Horrobin, Director of City Realty Group. “The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has now cut the Official Cash Rate at five consecutive policy meetings — and there’s speculation a sixth cut could come at the next announcement on May 28th.”

In response, the major banks have started to move. Stuff reported on 16 April that floating mortgage rates were dropped almost immediately after the last OCR cut, and fixed rates are now dipping below 5%.

From a sales perspective, the shift is starting to show in the numbers. The latest REINZ report (15 April) reveals continued year-on-year growth in sales volumes nationwide — carrying on from the strong momentum seen last month.

CoreLogic agrees, stating, “The next phase in New Zealand’s property market has begun.” Their data from Q1 shows a notable drop in the number of suburbs experiencing price declines — a signal, they say, that the early stages of an upturn are underway.

Michael Gordon, Chief Economist at Westpac, backs this up, noting that house prices have been ticking up in recent months, with lower interest rates helping to reignite buyer interest.

That said, not everyone is ready to pop the champagne. Economist Tony Alexander highlights the global uncertainty at play:
“None of us has experience of what happens during a tariff war, or a potential decoupling of the world’s two biggest economies… Any forecast — including mine — is likely to be wrong.”

Still, he notes New Zealand is better positioned than many to weather the storm. Only 13% of our exports go to the US, and most products affected by tariffs are in volatile categories where price swings are expected.

Back Home in Auckland…
“Inquiry levels are steady and open home attendance remains consistent,” says Daniel. “But with more than 600 apartments currently on the market in the central city, buyers are spoiled for choice — and that’s creating a noticeable drag on urgency.”

In Rentals – A Shift is Underway
We’re also seeing major changes in the rental market. Stuff (23 April) reported that national rental listings hit a 10-year high in March, with Trade Me Property showing a 41% increase compared to the same month in 2024.

That trend is very much reflected in Auckland’s central city, where landlords are being forced to reassess their rent expectations. “It’s a case of adjusting to where the market is, or risking long-term vacancies,” says Daniel.

Looking Ahead
“Onwards and upwards,” Daniel adds. “We’re heading into another strong auction event at the end of May, and despite the headwinds, we’re seeing good opportunities — if you’ve got the right strategy and a committed team behind you.”