While a rate cut was discussed, the consensus was to delay any adjustment until the August meeting, given the uncertain near-term outlook. Policymakers acknowledged the value in waiting, particularly as inflation risks remain elevated.

BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones recently revised the bank’s annual house price inflation forecast down from 5–7% to 2–4%, citing “a general uncertainty” and global factors that continue to weigh on domestic demand. “We’re in a recovery phase, but recent speed bumps have complicated the narrative,” Jones said.

Green Shoots of Confidence

Daniel Horrobin, Director of City Realty Group, says that while rate cuts may still be on the horizon, the market is unlikely to see deep reductions from here. “What we’re hoping is that buyers recognise this is likely as good as it gets, and the window of opportunity to secure favourable conditions may not be open for long.”

There are already signs that confidence may be returning. “Our group-wide open home attendance was up 25% in the week ending 13 July,” Horrobin said.

“In one standout example, a central city property had its auction brought forward due to an early offer. Competitive bidding on auction day led to an even stronger result for the vendor — a great signal that urgency is returning.”

Steady Performance, Limited Listings

Despite broader market challenges, Horrobin says the Auckland central apartment sector has held steady over the winter months. “Sales volumes have remained consistent through June and July, though new listings are increasingly tight. Once again, the number of central city apartments listed on Trade Me has dipped below 600.”

“With buyer activity showing early signs of lifting, we anticipate seller confidence will follow.”

Challenges Remain — But So Does Optimism

Economist Tony Alexander, writing in OneRoof on 17 July, noted that households are still navigating pressures from tight business margins, job insecurity, rising living costs, and soft migration numbers.

“Despite that,” Horrobin adds, “we believe the fundamentals are tilting in a positive direction. As the country dries out from a very wet winter, we’re cautiously optimistic that momentum will build heading into spring.